Background

This research used the latest (2018) Office for National Statistics (ONS) population estimates to produce up-to-date projections of disability, and the associated costs for social care, in old age.

These projections built upon earlier work undertaken by the team. The project was a collaboration between the Older People and Frailty (OPFPRU) and Adult Social Care (ASCRU) Policy Research Units.

Aims and objectives

• Update projections of future trends in disability in later life.
• Describe the ways in which these trends might vary under different population assumptions and scenarios for the chance of becoming dependent.
• Predict the social care costs associated with these trends in disability.

Resources and further information

• Full report: Future Trends in Disability in Old Age (PDF).
• Executive summary: Future Trends in Disability in Old Age (PDF).
• Short report: Future Trends in Disability in Old Age (PDF).
• Publication: Projections of dependency and associated social care expenditure for the older population in England to 2038: effect of varying disability progression (Age and Ageing).

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